Weekly Global Economic Update

Overall, household debt increased 4.8% between November 2022 and November 2023. These concerns have prompted the Fed to forecast three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2024. In January 2024, the Fed kept rates locked in where they’ve been since July 2023 — between 5.25% to 5.5%.

US exceptionalism is alive and well, and that won’t change in 2026 as we expect the economy to outperform consensus expectations. We forecast activity will rebound 2.9% in 2026, underpinned by four key themes that will define the year. If you have questions about any of the topics above or want to learn more, please contact us to connect with a U.S. Diminished uncertainty could curb shocks and sharpen China and emerging-market opportunities. We aim to be the most respected financial services firm in the world, serving corporations and individuals in more than 100 countries. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities.

One possible reason is that hiring is taking place in the types of organizations that are less likely to be affected by the Middle East situation. Our mission is to provide accurate data and expert insights on emerging trends. Unless otherwise noted, this page’s content was written by either an employee or a paid contractor of Semrush Inc. 40% of Gen Zers don’t have the financial resources to save for a down payment. And, their rising debt-to-income ratio is high, a key metric that lessens their chance of getting approved for a mortgage and getting a reasonable mortgage rate. Recent global conflicts have led to a dramatic uptick in the defense and aerospace sectors of the U.S. economy.

Commodity demand and external trade remain key influences, but the region is actively seeking to diversify and increase intra-regional trade. The Mercosur trade agreement stands out as a pivotal opportunity to strengthen Latin America’s economic relationship with Europe. The finalisation of this agreement would unlock greater access to European markets, drive new partnerships and foster investment in strategic sectors. For middle-market organisations, this translates into opportunity – provided there is agility about Junja Holdings Limited in navigating regulatory changes and leveraging evolving export channels, especially in agribusiness and industry.

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In addition, the government released data on initial claims for unemployment insurance. And it found that, last week, the number of initial claims was 225,000—the highest since early February. Why is job growth accelerating at a time when organizations face potentially negative consequences from the conflict in the Middle East?

This ongoing assessment ensures that nations can effectively navigate challenges, build competitive advantages, and foster sustainable growth in a dynamic global economy. Additionally, as Soft Power continues to play an increasingly significant role in shaping perceptions, measuring and managing nation brand value is essential for maintaining global influence and resilience in an interconnected world. Brazil’s economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, building on continued political stability and an ambitious sustainability agenda. COP30, recently hosted in Belém, and the sustainability provisions embedded within the Mercosur agreement, reflect Brazil’s centrality in advancing regional climate action. These efforts combine international cooperation with domestic innovation, driving new investment in renewable energy, biodiversity, and responsible development. Significant investment in wind, solar and bioenergy is positioning Brazil as a regional leader in renewables, presenting compelling opportunities for businesses with a commitment to sustainability and progress.

Plus, it will then take time for the hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf to get to their intended destinations. Thus, the physical shortage of oil, which has been offset by the release of reserves, will continue and could get worse if reserves are exhausted. Thus, the price of oil will likely remain elevated, thereby contributing to further acceleration in inflation in many countries—at least for the next few months. And that means real wages will be suppressed, thereby contributing to slower economic growth in the coming months. If the price of oil remains relatively high, it would have negative implications for aggregate demand in the global economy. Also, the establishment survey found that average hourly earnings for all workers were up 3.4% in May versus a year earlier—barely keeping pace with inflation.

• Inflation is becoming embedded into the economy, thereby generating higher expectations for inflation.
• While 85% of leaders say building their organization’s ability to adapt at speed is critical, only 7% believe they’re actually leading on that front.
• The professionals who stand out in 2026 are the ones who can work with AI tools and bring the contextual judgment and interpersonal capability that machines still can’t touch.

The United Arab Emirates stands out with substantial progress, while Saudi Arabia also demonstrates strong economic performance. Our GSPI research underscores that both nations have made significant strides in science and technology, contributing to their overall growth. The UAE’s comprehensive policies focused on AI, renewable energy, and space exploration have been key drivers of its economic development.

Mexico records stable nation brand value led by subdued economic outlook, with economic growth expected to be lower than in previous years. Before exploring the results of the leading nation brands in 2025, let us first examine the broader trends shaping the global economy. Even so, technology remains a core trend for the region’s financial sector. Gulf banks are increasingly acting like tech companies, creating their own services and hiring an exponential number of engineers and IT staff. Financial markets are also becoming more structured and accessible, making it easier to direct investments in and out of the region.

On May 7, 2026, EU lawmakers reached a provisional agreement to overhaul key parts of the AI Act as part of the broader Digital Omnibus package. The agreement pushes back enforcement of high-risk AI system obligations from August 2, 2026, to December 2, 2027, a 16-month delay. For AI systems classified as regulated products or safety components, the deadline extends to August 2028. The package also broadens regulatory relief for smaller businesses and clarifies rules around processing sensitive data for bias detection. The stakes have never been higher, but the good news is that AI is creating more opportunities than many predicted. PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer found that job numbers are rising even in highly automatable roles—and workers with AI skills command wage premiums up to 56% higher than their peers.

It is the product of decisive leadership and a commitment to bold investment, particularly in digital transformation and operational innovation. Latin American businesses have remained agile, responding proactively to inflationary pressures and changing market conditions. “One of the most important drivers of markets over time is the direction of corporate earnings,” says Schuster.

Latin America Economic Outlook: Key Trends And Growth Forecasts

The labor shortage is already threatening operations and productivity in several sectors of the economy. NOAA’s data shows that Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F per decade since 1880. However, the rate of warming increased to 0.32° F per decade in the years since 1981. Low inventory and high-interest rates have plagued the real estate sector for the past several months. The same survey reported that more than 40% of consumers predict positive economic conditions for the year ahead.

We expect growth to pick up slightly in CEE, underpinned by a cyclical upswing in domestic demand. Industry prospects for 2026 appear solid, but we expect industrial performance to remain uneven across regions and sectors. Inflation level hikes, first due to tariffs and then due to the crisis in the Middle East, have impacted household spending power. Yet, American households have been determined to maintain their standard of living by dipping into savings. Indeed, the sharp drop in spending on durables in April suggests that households are beginning to feel the pain.

Moreover, short-term fluctuations in a rapidly changing economic scenario need to be considered. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the other economic factors along with these trends for robust decision-making. Yet, this study is important because it will likely provide support for countries that want to challenge China’s trade and industrial policies. The European Union in particular already intends to take steps to reduce China’s perceived threat to European companies.

The capacity, capabilities and equipment CDMOs have available/accessible deeply impacts the ability to gain and retain clients. From breaking macro trends to deep-dive market outlooks, have critical insights delivered straight to your inbox. Oxford Economics is the world’s foremost independent economic advisory firm.

These insights are gleaned from the latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), published by S&P Global. A reading above 50 indicates growth; the higher the number, the faster the growth. Some of America’s oldest and youngest adults are now facing unique financial pressures. These pressures are set to impact consumer spending, healthcare costs, and other nationwide economic markers in the coming years.

Looking ahead, the focus must remain on sustainable wage growth and policies that support both employees and employers in adapting to new economic realities. The rise of remote work and technological advancements will continue to shape the salary landscape, necessitating proactive measures from both businesses and the government. In 2025, CDMO capacity and pipelines are being shaped by the rising complexity of innovative therapeutics, especially biologics, cell therapies, and oligonucleotides. We are seeing increased demand for outsourced manufacturing of specialized oncology treatments, such as ADCs, cytotoxics, and other highly potent compounds, that require advanced handling and containment. This shift reflects a broader industry trend to accelerate access to complex therapies while ensuring safety and quality.

For the US Fed, the challenge will be to anchor those expectations, which may involve a tightening of monetary policy. If core prices did not reflect rising inflation levels, the Fed could theoretically look through the temporary surge in inflation and focus on the underlying trend. Yet, with core inflation now accelerating, this is probably not an option any more. Indeed, the futures market currently sees an implied probability of 44% that the Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate this year. In the United States, the manufacturing PMI increased from 54.5 in April to 55.1 in May—the highest level since May 2022. The high level was largely due to strong output growth, for which the subindex hit the highest level since April 2022.

“It’s very significant that we not only saw revenue growth but that more of that incremental revenue was dropping into operating margins,” says Gaggar. The iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF will invest in privately issued securities that have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 and as a result are subject to legal restrictions on resale. Privately issued securities are not traded on established markets and may be illiquid, difficult to value and subject to wide fluctuations in value. Delay or difficulty in selling such securities may result in a loss to the iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF.

Investments in water facilities, local farms, food factories, and water-saving technologies are anticipated. As AI generates more content and analysis, the ability to evaluate, question, and synthesize becomes a differentiator. Invest in skills that require contextual judgment, emotional intelligence, and strategic vision—these remain firmly in the human domain. Critical mineral alliances are taking center stage, as governments and companies race to secure traceable, resilient supply chains.

AI is the first general-purpose technology introduced to CEOs, tenured professors, and college freshmen at the same time. Now seniors, the Class of 2026 is the first wave of talent to have lived through this shift across their entire college career — from ChatGPT’s launch in November 2022 to their first post-graduation job search today. Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, the Environmental Protection Agency has rolled back a number of regulations. These actions include the recent repeal of the 2009 greenhouse gas “endangerment finding,” which had served as the basis for regulating emissions from vehicles, power plants and other sources. Views also differ by party when it comes to the effects of Trump’s policies on the economy so far. A 57% majority of Republicans say Trump’s policies have made the economy better, up 10 points since September.

The outlook remains strong with consensus estimates suggesting AI-related spending via hyperscaler capex are expected to rise 33% in 2026 after a 69% surge in 2025. AI-related physical capex reported in the national accounts—data center construction, computer and communications equipment—rose 26% inflation adjusted in the four quarters ending 2Q25. Based off current forecasts, we expect the year-on-year rise in physical tech capex, which accounts for 1.5% of GDP, could be half as much in 2026, and half again in 2027. This strong growth is being fueled by exports, which are expected to grow 39.8% in 2026. Given that strong economic growth is not being fueled by domestic demand, the economy is not generating much inflationary pressure.

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Randy Tarnowski is Head of Economic Research at Handshake, where he leads research into the early career labor market and the future of work. Check the score based on the company’s fundamentals, solvency, growth, risk & ownership to decide the right stocks. Millions of protesters are preparing for anti-Trump rallies across the US. These ‘No Kings’ protests aim to denounce the government shutdown and President Trump’s policies. Revelations indicate George Soros’s Open Society Foundations are a significant funder of the movement, with millions in grants to key organizations like Indivisible. By contrast, nuclear power has seen an increase in support in recent years (now at 59% overall), with growing support among Republicans and Democrats alike.